What's weather forecast for next few weeks? We haven't got a clue, admits Met Office

AFTER last year's "barbecue summer" that never was and failing topredict this winter's near-Arctic conditions, the Met Office hasfinally admitted defeat and abandoned its seasonal forecasts.

Instead, the forecasts which were issued four times a year arebeing replaced by monthly predictions which will be updated on aweekly basis.

Met Office scientists have come under increasing fire forseasonal forecasts which have not predicted the extreme weatherconditions which have swept the UK in recent years. This includedthe past three wet summers and this winter, which they predicted hadonly a 20 per cent chance of being colder than average.

In reality, the winter - December, January and February - was theseventh coldest since records began in 1914, and the coldest since1978-79.

The lack of an accurate weather forecast around Christmas,Hogmanay and the start of 2010 was blamed for a near-crisissituation which saw many roads and pavements left ungritted, peopleunable to get to work and vulnerable people trapped in their homes.

The weather conditions are also believed to have contributed to26 deaths across the UK.

Finance secretary John Swinney urged people to "pull together andlook out for those in need" around Christmas.

There were also fears Britain would run short of gas after theNational Grid warned major users for only the second time in 30years to cut consumption, as demand soared by nearly a third.

However, yesterday a statement on the Met Office website omittedany mention of recent disasters and attributed the change of tack to"customer research".

The statement said: "By their nature, forecasts become lessaccurate the further out we look. Although we can identify generalpatterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow an exactforecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise a certain typeof weather. As a result, seasonal forecasts cannot be as precise asour short-term forecasts."

The Met Office also said the UK was one of the most difficultplaces to provide forecasts for because of its size and location. Itsaid that the weather in temperate climates such as the UK made itvery hard to forecast much beyond a week.

The Exeter-based Met Office added that it would work towardsdeveloping the science of long-range forecasting.

Last month, it emerged that Met Office staff had pocketed morethan GBP 12 million in bonuses.

The new forecasts were welcomed by Scotland's tourism bosses. AVisitScotland spokeswoman said: "The new monthly forecasts from theMet Office may help families plan a day outdoors minus theirumbrellas with greater confidence, but let's not forget Scotland isa year-round destination, whether it's sunny or not."

However, Jimmy Ireland, a farmer of Feoch Farm in Darvel,Ayrshire, said that many farmers had already given up relying on theMet Office's seasonable forecasts. "We rely on the weather a lot andwe've lost money in the past trusting their predictions. With thetechnology they have, it beggars belief they could get it so wrong.

"Nowadays, I listen to weather forecasts morning and night, andgo on the internet and do it myself."

Blowing hot and cold: the forecasts that got it wrong

MICHAEL Fish is infamous for his gaffe on 15 October, 1987, whena television broadcast showed him saying: "Earlier today apparentlya woman rang the BBC and said she heard that there was a hurricaneon the way. Well, don't worry, if you're watching, there isn't."That night the "Great Storm of 1987" hit southern England with gustsof 100mph.

* Last May, the Met Office's long-range weather forecastindicated the UK was "odds-on for a barbecue summer" with longspells of hot weather, where temperatures could top 30C (86F).

The Department of Health even advised householders to prepare fora potential heatwave by "going Mediterranean" and painting theoutside of their homes white to reflect the heat.

But hopes were dashed as heavy downpours caused chaos, with floodwarnings put in place across many parts of Scotland.

* This winter has officially been the coldest for more than 30years, despite the Met Office's prediction last year of warmer-than-average temperatures.

They predicted that there was only a 20 per cent chance of acolder-than-average winter, but the Met Office's records show anaverage temperature of just 1.5C.